Poll: support gap between ruling Law and Justice and opposition tightens
According to a new survey carried out by Kantar Millward Brown, 33 percent of respondents would vote on the ruling coalition of Law and Justice, Alliance and United Poland, if the elections were held in the coming days. This is 5 percentage points less compared to the September's poll. Civic Platform would get the second result of 26 percent of votes, while the Democratic Left Alliance and Kukiz'15 would be third with 7 percent each.
Thirty three (33) percent of those surveyed declared casting their votes on the joint list of Law and Justice, Alliance and United Poland. This is a 5-percentage-point drop compared to the previous survey from 17 September.
Civic Platform would take the second place with 26 percent of voters supporting the party. The main opposition party enjoys an increase by 5 percentage points compared to the September's poll.
Democratic Left Alliance and Kukiz'15 movement would also make it to the parliament, each having 7 percent of voters behind them. Both parties see an increase in support by 2 and 3 percentage points respectively.
The remaining formations wouldn't reach the minimum, 5-percent threshold enshrined in the election law for political parties. The threshold for coalitions is 8 percent.
According to Kantar Millward Brown pollster, the estimated turnout would amount to 49 percent.
Full results of the survey:
Law and Justice/Alliance/United Poland - 33 percent (drop by 5 percentage points)
Civic Platform - 26 percent (increase by 5 p.p.)
Democratic Left Alliance - 7 percent (increase by 2 p.p.)
Kukiz'15 - 7 percent (increase by 3 p.p.)
Polish People's Party - 4 percent (no change)
Modern Party (decrease by 4 p.p.)
Razem Party - 3 percent (drop by 1 p.p.)
Liberty Party (former KORWiN) - 2 percent (drop by 3 p.p.)
National Movement - 1 percent (no change)
Teraz! (Ryszard Petru's new party) - 0 percent (wasn't included in the previous survey)
Don't know/hard to say/haven't decided yet - 11 percent
Refused to answer - 3 percent
The survey for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24 was carried out by Kantar Millward Brown between 19 and 20 November 2018 on a nationwide, representative sample of mobile and landline phone numbers of people aged 18 or older. The sample amounted to 1002 persons.